China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway: Could China be at India’s border?
- China is pursuing the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway (CKU-R) as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
- It aims to enhance connectivity in Central Asia.
Key Highlights
- The project, initially conceived in the 1990s, is gaining momentum due to geopolitical shifts and the need for alternative trade routes.
- However, it faces significant challenges, including financial hurdles, security concerns, and geopolitical complexities.
Current Connectivity and China's Opportunity
- Presently, only two outlets connect China's Xinjiang to South and Central Asia.
- China sees an opportunity to strengthen its presence in the region with the CKU-R, linking Kashgar to Osh and Andijan, ultimately connecting with the European railway network.
Strategic Significance
- CKU-R is a strategic and economic boon for China, providing a direct link between Xinjiang and Fergana Valley, the heart of Eurasia.
- The railway aims to boost China's presence in Central Asia, South Caucasus, and Europe-bound freight, bypassing longer routes through Russia.
Challenges and Hurdles
- Kyrgyzstan's political and financial challenges, including a lack of funds ($4.7 billion) for its part of the route, hinder progress.
- The fear of falling into a debt trap and concerns about Chinese expansionism pose obstacles to the project.
Geopolitical Considerations
- Central Asian geopolitics, including ties to Russia and Uzbekistan's openness to the West, add complexity to the project.
- China's changing terms of engagement favor bilateral approaches, reducing reliance on consensus-based groups like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Comparison with Russia's Role
- China's trade with Central Asian countries, surpassing Russia's in some cases, reflects a shift in economic influence.
- Unlike Russia's assertive stance, Chinese diplomats adopt a subtler approach, focusing on economic engagement.
- The project could potentially reshape regional connectivity and influence, challenging Russia's dominance in the south-north directed connectivity.
Prelims takeaway
- Central Asian countries
- China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway (CKU-R)