Myanmar's Ongoing Struggle: The Triangular Power Dynamics

Triangular Power Architecture

1. Political Class and NUG's Resistance

• The political class is represented by the unrecognised group called the National Unity Government (NUG).
• It challenges the military through its militia units known as the People's Defence Forces, gaining victories in rural Bamar areas.
• Operating from underground or Thailand, the NUG articulates a vision of a 'federal democratic union.'

2. Ethnic Armed Organizations

• The ethnic armed groups inflicted heavy losses on the military along the Thai and Chinese borders.
• The Three Brotherhood Alliance's successes in 2023 shook the military, however, internal divisions persist among ethnic organisations.

3. Tatmadaw's Dismal Situation

• The military or Tatmadaw, historically a dominant force, now faces widespread opposition and internal discontent.
• Reason: Due to its perceived incompetence in suppressing resistance.
• There is now considerable discontent within the military against its current leadership with speculation on possible leadership change.

International Community's Response

• Efforts by the United Nations, ASEAN, Japan, and Myanmar's neighbours to facilitate reconciliation have failed.
• Also, the military's reluctance to adhere to ASEAN's Five Point Consensus has dashed hopes for a resolution.

India's Policy Shift

• India's previous policy of maintaining cordial relations with the government while supporting democracy has strengthened bilateral ties.
• But, as violence and divisiveness define Myanmar, India must review its approach.

Suggestions for Policy Adaptations

1. Border Security

• The rising influx of refugees into Mizoram and Manipur and greater activism of Myanmar-based anti-India insurgents, has aggravated the security situation.
• This has prompted India to reconsider the 2018 Free Movement Regime agreement with Myanmar.
• It has also compelled India to undertake fencing along the entire length of the border.

2. Engaging with Resistance: Establishing communication links with resistance groups gaining ground against the military such as the Chin National Army, Arakan Army, and the NUG.
3. Promoting Ceasefire

• A strong message advocating for the cessation of violence and the restoration of normalcy should be relayed.
• This message should underscore India's support for Myanmar's transition to a federal democracy.

4. Regional Involvement

• Proposing a Peace Conclave involving Quad member states and the ASEAN Troika.
• Purpose: To evaluate the situation and offer practical assistance in achieving security and stability.

5. Freedom for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

• Seeking immediate freedom for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is a crucial step towards a better future for Myanmar.
• Ms. Suu Kyi, who was unjustly held in solitary confinement, is still the most popular leader, holding the key to unlocking a better future.