The larger message to New Delhi from the Red Sea
- Recent Houthi terror attacks on commercial vessels, including Indian-owned ones, highlight growing challenges and potential conflicts in the maritime domain.
- The Houthi attacks and the fragility of order and stability in the Indo-Pacific serve as a reminder of the challenges India faces in its maritime space.
- While this challenge may subside, it prompts a broader question whether India possesses a comprehensive maritime grand strategy.
Shifting Strategic Focus: Continental to Maritime Theater
- India has undergone a significant and positive transformation in its grand strategy, shifting from a continental focus to a maritime perspective.
- This marks India's embrace of global engagement, especially as its land borders become more contentious, limiting trade and transit options.
India's New Two-Front Challenge
- The traditional two-front challenge for India has shifted from the Pakistan-China scenario to a combination of continental and maritime challenges.
- While India focused on the Line of Control with Pakistan and the Line of Actual Control with China, China quietly expanded its influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
China's Maritime Expansion
- China, with an aggressive stance, is expanding its navy, projected to have over 435 ships by 2030.
- Its naval presence in the IOR aims to contain India in the Indo-Pacific. These include
- Bases in Djibouti
- Growing activities in Gwadar and Hambantota
- Strategic investments in Myanmar, Maldives, Seychelles and Cambodia.
- This challenges India's historical influence in the region.
China's Strategic Moves
- China's strategy extends beyond South Asia, targeting regions historically linked to India.
- From the Horn of Africa to the Arabian Sea and beyond, China's actions amount to a comprehensive containment strategy against India in both the continental and maritime domains.
India's Response
- To counter this challenge, India should leverage the growing global attention on the Indo-Pacific, forming coalitions with like-minded countries.
- The Indo-Pacific is crucial not only for India's regional security but also for the commercial and security interests of the United States and its allies.
- The Quad and Malabar initiatives, while useful, are seen as modest responses to the rapidly unfolding grand challenge.
- India should invest in a cohesive Indo-Pacific strategy that goes beyond intentions and declarations.
Conclusion
- While India's decision not to join the US led 'Operation Prosperity Guardian' may be prudent for now, a collective effort is crucial in the longer run to effectively counter the challenge posed by China on both fronts - continental and maritime.
- The Red Sea situation may fade, but India's new two-front challenge is likely to become more apparent in the years to come.