The global nuclear order is under strain
- The Global Nuclear order (GNO) was established during the Cold War with the US and USSR.
- Objective: To prevent nuclear tensions and curb the spread of nuclear weapons.
Elements of the GNO
- Bilateral mechanisms and arms control negotiations, such as the hotline, were initiated to manage the nuclear arms race.
- Multilateral negotiations in 1965 led to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968, becoming a cornerstone with 191 adherents.
- India chose not to sign the NPT and conducted an underground peaceful nuclear explosive, or PNE in 1974.
- The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) emerged in 1975 to control nuclear technology transfer for peaceful purposes.
Successes and Challenges of the GNO
- The taboo against nuclear weapons has been held since 1945.
- Non-proliferation efforts have limited the number of nuclear-armed countries.
- Arms control during the Cold War provided some stability.
- However, the post-Cold War era saw challenges, with the US and Russia facing changing geopolitics.
Changing Geopolitics and Nuclear Landscape
- The current nuclear landscape involves a more assertive China challenging the US, leading to strained treaties and strategic stability talks.
- The US withdrawal from treaties like the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) and Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, and uncertainties around New START, pose threats to the GNO.
- Last year, Russia de-ratified the CTBT to bring it on a par with the US, raising concerns about the resumption of nuclear testing.
- Furthermore, the display of Russian nuclear sabre-rattling to warn NATO and the US against escalating tensions in Ukraine has reignited nuclear apprehensions.
- The US ignored when Israel pursued nuclear development in the 1960s-70s and China helped Pakistan with its nuclear programme in the 1980s.
Shift in US Policies and Allies' Concerns
- Evolving US policies, domestic priorities, and uncertainties about extended deterrence raise questions among allies in East Asia about the reliability of US commitments.
- Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, possessing technical capabilities, may consider independent nuclear deterrents, impacting the traditional concept of the US nuclear umbrella.
Conclusion
- The GNO is facing increasing challenges due to geopolitical shifts, evolving nuclear strategies, and uncertainties in US commitments signalling potential instability in the global nuclear landscape.