The big victory for climate at COP28
- The COP28 to the UNFCCC recently concluded with mixed outcomes, highlighting the challenges in addressing climate change.
- The first global stocktake presented at COP28 indicates the inadequacy of current NDCs in reducing global GHG emissions substantially by 2030.
Key Challenges
- Implementation Gap
- The current NDCs, if fully implemented, would result in only a 2% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
- This is falling far short of the required targets for limiting temperature rise.
- A 50 percent chance of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C by 2050 requires the peaking of global emissions by 2025 and their reduction by 43 percent by 2030 and by 60 percent by 2035.
- Finance and Technology Support
- Developing countries' NDC achievements are often contingent on financial and technological support from developed nations.
- However, the promised $100 billion per year to support climate action has never been achieved.
- There are questions about the definition of climate finance and concerns over reported figures.
- Financial Gap
- The IPCC estimates that developing countries need $800 billion per year for the next seven years to implement their NDCs.
- For implementing their NDCs, developing countries need $5.8-$5.9 trillion or roughly $800 billion a year for the next seven years.
- This is in addition to additional funds required for adaptation and loss and damage.
- For adaptation alone, about $215-$387 billion a year would be required in the same period.
- However, the current pledges fall significantly short of these needs.
- The IPCC estimates that developing countries need $800 billion per year for the next seven years to implement their NDCs.
Positive Outcomes
- Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels
- COP28 is the first COP that recognized the need to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems by 2050.
- However, the declaration also acknowledges the role of "transitional fuels," including natural gas.
- Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Targets
- Credible targets include tripling global renewable energy capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030 and doubling the rate of energy efficiency gains to 4% annually by 2030.
- India is actively involved in these areas.
- Inclusion of Nuclear Energy and Hydrogen
- Nuclear energy, green hydrogen and blue hydrogen were acknowledged as clean energy sources for the first time.
- India also has a focus on these sectors.
- Acknowledgment of Interconnected Challenges
- COP28 explicitly linked climate change to adverse impacts on health, food security, and biodiversity loss.
- This signals a move towards recognizing the broader ecological challenges.
Concerns
- Coal Power Phase-Down
- There is relief in India that the declaration calls for a "phase-down" rather than a "phase-out" of unabated coal power.
- However, there are tensions and challenges in addressing the role of coal in energy transitions.
- Grouping Initiatives
- There is a trend of countries forming initiatives and pledges outside of UNFCCC consensus targets.
- India has generally stayed away from such groupings but remains engaged in the broader UNFCCC framework.
Conclusion
- The world is finally moving towards acknowledging that climate change is only one component of a larger ecological challenge.
- There is no alternative to adopting a cross-domain and cross-disciplinary approach to resolving such deeply interconnected challenges.