Myanmar’s civil war and India’s interests
- The situation in Myanmar's conflict-ridden regions, particularly Paletwa, poses challenges and opportunities for various stakeholders.
- These include ethnic groups, neighbouring countries like India, and global players like China.
Conflict Dynamics in Paletwa
- The fall of Paletwa has intensified the historical tensions between the Chin and Arakan ethnic groups over territorial claims.
- Despite their shared struggle against the Myanmar military, the two groups must find a way to govern Paletwa jointly to maintain peace and order.
- Paletwa's strategic location and economic significance make it crucial for armed groups vying for control.
- Paletwa’s location on the western border makes it a good launchpad for the Arakan Army to conduct its operations against the military.
- Given its location on the Kaladan River, Paletwa is a commercial hub where any armed group with a substantial presence would benefit from the economic activity in the region.
India's Interests and the Kaladan Project
- The developments in Paletwa will also impact the Indian government’s Kaladan Project in Myanmar, which has already faced significant delays.
- Delays in the project's implementation are attributed to various factors, including security concerns and local ethnic dynamics.
- India's Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project aims to provide northeast India with access to the sea via Myanmar.
- The Arakan Army's perceived opposition to the project has raised concerns in India, highlighted by incidents such as the kidnapping of Indian workers.
China's Role and Economic Interests
- China's investments and strategic projects in Myanmar, including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, indicate its growing economic presence in the region.
- The Arakan Army, along with other ethnic armed groups, allegedly receives support from China, potentially impacting India's projects and interests in Myanmar.
Implications and Recommendations
- The completion of the Kaladan project requires careful consideration of ethnic dynamics, security challenges, and geopolitical interests.
- Coordinated efforts involving technical expertise and strategic coordination are necessary.
- To navigate the complexities of Myanmar's conflict zones and advance regional connectivity and development initiatives.
- India's engagement with Myanmar and its support for connectivity projects must align with efforts to address sectarian violence and promote development.