Israel-Iran Conflict & Geopolitical Implications
- JCPOA (2015): Nuclear deal limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment; opposed by Israel. {The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, is a 2015 agreement between Iran and several world powers (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus the European Union) aimed at restricting Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. }
- "Ring of Fire": Iran’s proxy network (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis).
- Threshold State: Nuclear-capable without weaponization (Iran’s strategy).
- Abraham Accords (2020): Israel-Sunni Arab normalization pacts (e.g., UAE, Bahrain).
Trigger for 2025 Escalation
- Operation Rising Lion (June 2025): Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear/military sites (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan).
- IAEA Violation: Iran found non-compliant with safeguards (60% enriched uranium stockpile: 400+ kg).
- US Involvement: Direct strikes using B-2 bombers & bunker-busters on Fordow/Natanz.
Reasons for Conflict
- Historical: Anti-Israel stance post-1979 Islamic Revolution.
- Ideological: Shia Iran vs. Jewish Israel.
- Proxy Warfare: Iran backs Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis.
- Nuclear Threat: Israel seeks regional nuclear monopoly.
- Geopolitics: Rivalry in Syria/Yemen; Abraham Accords isolate Iran.
Global & Regional Implications
| Aspect | Impact |
|---|---|
| Energy Security | Strait of Hormuz disruption → 20% global oil supply at risk → Price surge. |
| Nuclear Proliferation | Iran may exit NPT → Regional arms race (Saudi, Turkey). |
| Diplomacy | JCPOA revival stalled; two-state solution (Palestine) derailed. |
| Proxy Escalation | Houthi/Hezbollah attacks in Red Sea, Lebanon, Iraq. |
India’s Stakes & Challenges
- Energy: 60% oil imports via Hormuz; price volatility → inflation risk.
- Diaspora: 8+ million NRIs in Gulf; evacuation challenges.
- Connectivity: Chabahar Port (Iran) & IMEC Corridor threatened.
- Diplomacy: Balancing ties with Israel (defense), Iran (energy), and Arab states.
- Trade: Red Sea shipping disruptions → higher logistics costs.
** Current Affairs**
- 2025 Updates:
-
IAEA’s August 2025 report (critical for sanctions).
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US direct strikes (policy shift from Trump’s "no wars" pledge).
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Iran’s "Operation True Promise 3" missile retaliation.
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- Previous Questions:
- Mains 2020: "How does the Iran-Israel conflict affect India’s energy security?"
- Prelims 2023: Strait of Hormuz connects ______? (Ans: Persian Gulf & Gulf of Oman)