Is the Ukraine war changing world order?
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine, initially anticipated as a swift military operation, has evolved into the largest land war in Europe since WWII.
- The conflict has reshaped geopolitical dynamics, with Russia turning to Asia and the Global South while the West supports Ukraine.
- A vast majority of countries, including India, remain neutral as the violence continues.
Did Russia Miscalculate?
- Defence experts agree that Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine with fewer troops than anticipated was a grave strategic miscalculation.
- Western military assistance, training and intervention hindered Russia’s expectations of a quick victory.
- Since then, Russia’s military campaign has shifted from offence to strengthening the lines of defence with limited offensive battles.
Current Status of the War
- Eight months after Ukraine’s counteroffensive began, it’s now evident that the campaign failed, leading to a plea for mass mobilization.
- They lost many of their West-supplied weapons and are waiting for fresh supplies, but aid from the US is stuck.
- On the other side, Russia has made advances, capturing strategic towns and applying pressure on Ukrainian forces in Donetsk and Kherson.
West's Strategy
- The West supports Ukraine economically and militarily while imposing sanctions on Russia to weaken its economy and military capabilities.
- Sanctions have significantly impacted Russia's revenue and access to critical technologies, although Russia has found ways to circumvent them.
- Russia has diversified its markets, strengthened ties with China, and increased domestic spending on defence.
Transformation in Russia due to War
- Russia's influence in its neighbourhood has waned, with neighbouring countries, Sweden and Finland, joining NATO and tensions with Armenia.
- Armenia decided to freeze participation in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
- Russia is also increasingly relying on China for certain aspects, while being mindful not to offend India's concerns.
- Internally, Russia is tightening control over dissent and sliding towards authoritarianism.
Global Implications
- The Western strategy has not yielded desired results, highlighting the limits of Western power in a changing world.
- Amidst the turmoil, China emerges relatively unaffected and perceives the conflict as entangling both Western powers and Russia in Ukraine.
- This prompts China to shift focus towards Asia and thereby reshaping the global power dynamics.