Iran, Pak, the Baloch militancy

Background

1. Historical Ties
   • Pre-1979 Islamic Revolution
   • Both countries were allies to the United States.
   • Joined the Baghdad Pact, later known as the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), a military alliance modelled on NATO.
   • Iran provided material and weapons support to Pakistan during its 1965 and 1971 wars against India.

• Post-1979: Iran's revolution shifted alliances, leading to distrust due to Pakistan's close ties with the US.

2. Geopolitical Differences

• Pakistan aligned with the US post-1979, contributing to Iranian distrust.
• The distrust increased after 9/11 as Islamabad extended unqualified support to the US “War on Terror”.
• Iran's focus on exporting the revolution and Pakistan's ties with Arab allies created geopolitical differences.

3. Afghanistan Conflict

• Opposing sides post-Soviet withdrawal: Iran backed the Northern Alliance, while Pakistan supported the Taliban.

4. Attempts at Reconciliation

• Periodic attempts to improve ties, influenced by leadership changes.
• Cooperation under leaders like Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari, strained during Nawaz Sharif's tenure.

Recent Escalation

• Balochistan Dynamics
  • The 909-km Iran-Pakistan border, known as the Goldsmith Line, stretches from a tripoint with Afghanistan to the northern Arabian Sea.
  • Ethnic Baloch live on either side of the line, in the Pakistani province of Balochistan, and the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan.
  • Their marginalisation in both countries in subsequent years fuelled several separatist movements.
  • Baloch insurgencies, targeting military and civilian sites, led to recent cross-border strikes.
• Jaish al-Adl
  • Iranian strikes targeted alleged bases of Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni militant group.
  • Pakistani response targeted Baloch Liberation Army and Baloch Liberation Front.
• Civilian Casualties and Retaliation
  • Both countries claim civilian casualties in attacks by the other.
  • Retaliatory strikes and summoning diplomats signal heightened tensions.
  • Iran and Pakistan have earlier cooperated to combat the Baloch insurgency.

Implications and Future Scenario

• India's Perspective
  • Over the past few decades, India’s ties with Iran have developed a meaningful dimension.
  • They have cooperated in the energy sector, despite the US sanctions on Iran, and India’s rapidly improving ties with the Americans.
  • India has been involved in the planning and building of the Chabahar port,
  • India mentioned its “uncompromising position of zero tolerance towards terrorism”, acknowledging self-defence actions.
  • India has long maintained that Pakistan supports militants.
• De-escalation Challenges
  • Economic challenges and insurgency on the Afghan border for Pakistan and pressing concerns for Iran limit potential for further escalation.
  • Both countries are likely to seek de-escalation after making statements through strikes.
• Potential Mediators
  • International actors, including China and Russia, could play a role in facilitating dialogue.
  • Regional forums such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation may be considered.