**Great Nicobar Island Project (GNIP):

Aspect	Details
Project Cost	₹72,000 crore
Components	Transshipment port, international airport, power plant, township
Location	Great Nicobar Island (Andaman & Nicobar)
Environmental Clearance	Granted by Centre; under NGT review for biodiversity/tribal impact concerns
— ### Earthquake Risk Controversy

1. EIA Report (by Vimta Labs):
   • Claims probability of mega-earthquake (≥9 magnitude) is "low".
   • Bases argument on IIT-Kanpur 2019 study:
     • Mega-quake recurrence: 420-750 years.
     • Large quake (>7.5) recurrence: 80-120 years.
2. IIT-Kanpur's Counter-Arguments:
   • Omitted Evidence: Sediment analysis shows 7 major tsunamis in 8,000 years.
   • 2,000-year gap in data → "uncertainty in predicting future quakes".
   • Site-specific studies needed: Quake impacts vary by origin point (e.g., Nicobar vs. Banda Aceh 2004).
3. Expert Warnings:
   • Prof. C.P. Rajendran (NIAS):
     • "Earthquake recurrence is non-linear" – centuries of silence possible before mega-event.
     • Parallel rupture lines near Nicobar → unknown pent-up energy.
   • MoES Scientist: Admits "calculated risk" taken due to forecasting limitations.

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Current Affairs & Schemes

• Island Development Agency (2017): A&N sustainable development.
• National Green Tribunal (NGT): Ordered GNIP review (2024).
• Sagarmala Programme: Port-led development context.

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Previous UPSC Questions

• Mains 2021 (GS-III): "Coastal regions are ecologically sensitive. How can development projects be balanced with environmental conservation?"
• Mains 2020 (GS-I): "Discuss the earthquake vulnerability of the Indian subcontinent."

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Critical Analysis for Mains

Why Proceed Despite Risks?

• Geostrategy: Counters Chinese influence in Indian Ocean ("Malacca Dilemma").
• Economic: Transshipment hub potential (bypassing Colombo/Singapore).
  Ethical Issues:
  • PVTG Rights: Shompen tribe's habitat threatened (Forest Rights Act).
  • EIA Integrity: Selective data use undermines environmental governance.