China 2023 coal power approvals rose, putting climate targets at risk

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Last Updated24/02/2024

China approved 114 gigawatts (GW) of coal power capacity in 2023, up 10% from a year earlier, with the world's top carbon polluter now at risk of falling short on climate targets after sanctioning dozens of new plants.

China has vowed to "strictly control" new coal-fired generation capacity, and has also connected record numbers of new wind and solar plants to its grid.
But after a wave of electricity shortages in 2021, China also embarked on a coal power permitting boom that could slow its energy transition
- According to analysis by U.S. think tank Global Energy Monitor (GEM) and the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
"Drastic action" is now required to meet 2025 carbon and energy intensity goals, and China could also struggle to meet a target to raise the share of non-fossil fuels in its total energy mix to 20% by 2025
China's CO2 emissions rose by an estimated 5.2% in 2023, and are up 12% since 2020, CREA lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta wrote in a separate note published by Carbon Brief

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
This target is considered significant, but there are a couple of important things to remember.
The 2 degrees Celsius target was not determined based on strict scientific evidence.
Instead, it was initially proposed by an economist named William Nordhaus in the 1970s.
The Alliance of Small Island States pushed for the target to be lowered to 1.5 degrees Celsius, leading to further retrofitting of future scenarios to meet this goal.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading scientific body on climate change, if current trends continue, the world is likely to reach 1.5°C of warming by 2030-2052.
Also, the IPCC Special Report on the difference in impacts between 1.5°C versus 2°C warming suggests that tropical countries
- Such as India are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth because of climate change.