Bangladesh elections and India
- As Bangladesh conducts its national elections, India will be observing closely.
- The countries share a 4,100-km border and deep historical, cultural and economic ties.
- A stable, prosperous Bangladesh is deemed beneficial for India, making India a supporter of the incumbent Sheikh Hasina.
Key Interests for India
- National Security
- Hasina's cooperative leadership eased India's security concerns on the eastern border.
- Previously, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party-led government was quite hostile to India.
- It provided safe haven to numerous anti-India terrorist and militant groups.
- It allegedly also had links to Pakistan’s ISI, and gave space to hardline Islamist radicals.
- Her crackdown on anti-India elements and counter-terrorism cooperation has improved India’s overall security situation.
- Given the situation in Myanmar, the need for close security partnership becomes more crucial.
- Deep Economic Ties
- Bangladesh's economic rise has replaced Pakistan as the second largest economy in the region.
- In 2022-23, Bangladesh was the fifth largest export destination for Indian goods, accounting for over 2.7% of all Indian exports.
- Under Hasina, Bangladesh is facilitating efficient connectivity to India’s Northeast through overland transit and inland waterways.
- Regional Cooperation
- India envisions Bangladesh as a fulcrum for regional cooperation in the Bay of Bengal, linking South and Southeast Asia.
- Dhaka hosts the BIMSTEC secretariat that connects the eastern subcontinent with Myanmar and Thailand.
- Bangladesh's political stability and growing regional importance support India's interests.
Concerns Addressed
- Democratic Backsliding
- Concerns about democratic backsliding under Hasina exist.
- However, the alternatives are viewed as bigger threats to democracy, peace, and prosperity in the region.
- Proximity to China
- Concerns about Hasina's increasing proximity to China are somewhat overstated.
- Compared to other neighbours, Bangladesh has been careful in navigating the tensions between India and China.
- India's primary consideration is that Bangladesh, or any neighbour, does not compromise India's security.
- US Criticism
- Historical reasons contribute to Bangladesh's tense relationships with the US and the UK.
- Recent rethinking in the US, with a shift in tone observed, reflect a potential improvement in US-Bangladesh relations.
Conclusion
- India's interests in Bangladesh, spanning national security, economic ties, and regional cooperation, align with supporting Sheikh Hasina's leadership.
- A stable Bangladesh is crucial for India, and India hopes for a fair and peaceful election process that allows for positive strategic relations between the two countries.