A search for deterrence in the Red Sea
- The ongoing conflict in the Red Sea involving Houthi rebels, Israeli attacks, and the hijacking of ships has raised concerns about the impact on stability and trade.
- The use of modern weaponry by the rebels adds complexity to the situation.
Houthi Attacks and Tactics
- Houthi rebels have targeted merchant shipping using various methods, including drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles.
- Instances of boarding ships and hijacking, such as the case of the Galaxy Leader, indicate the rebels' capabilities and training.
- State support to Houthis makes things more complicated, which in this case points to Iran, and perhaps China.
Impact on Trade and Stability
- The conflict poses a growing concern for maritime trade, with potential disruptions and increased rerouting and insurance costs.
- The use of advanced weaponry raises questions about the effectiveness of joint defence exercises and interoperability among maritime forces.
- Similar to past challenges such as piracy, delayed international responses provide adversaries with time to adapt to modern technologies and adopt new tactics, impacting the 'High-Risk Area' for maritime trade.
International Response
- Operation Prosperity Guardian launched by the US, under the Combined Maritime Force’s (CMF) Combined Task Force 153 has seen a tepid response from allies and partners.
- Notable absences include France, Italy, Spain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Japan and Australia.
- The US also plans to designate the Houthis as a specially designated global terrorist group, potentially restricting their access to the global financial system.
Challenges and Divisions
- The lack of a unified response indicates divisions among like-minded nations supporting freedom of navigation and maritime security.
- The US allies, including NATO members, operating independently raises questions about the effectiveness of international cooperative mechanisms.
Need for Calibrated Actions
- The Houthi rebels seem to exploit the divisions among nations, questioning the US's global dominance.
- The solution requires a ground-based approach to counter the attacks.
- Addressing the supply of weaponry is crucial, and there is a need for a feasible and quick achievable end state.
- Avoiding a state-on-state confrontation and preventing Yemen from becoming a battleground are critical considerations.